Following the announcement that the FTC will oppose the intended merger of the Kroger Company and Albertsons Corporation, analysts have reviewed the impact of both the present situation with a merger of the companies.

Under the present Administration, there is doubt that the transaction will be completed.  It is possible that further restrictions could be placed on the parties in the form of additional divestment of stores above the 413 offered. The FTC may designate an alternative to C&S Wholesale Grocers as the purchaser of divested stores.  This is based on the experience with Haggen filing for bankruptcy in 2015 shortly after acquiring stores from the Albertsons, Safeway transaction. 

Should the merger not take place, Walmart would be the major beneficiary maintaining a 24 percent share of the grocery market in the U.S. through a chain of 4,700 stores.  The buying power of Walmart contributes to their ability to maintain low shelf prices for packaged food from manufacturers. Campbell Soup and ConAgra Brands are heavily committed to Walmart in an asymmetric relationship.  The fact that ten chains control 60 percent of the retail grocery market  suggests that smaller producers of dairy, eggs and produce are at a disadvantage in dealing with large retailers, especially with buyers of eggs able to take advantage of the industry benchmark price-discovery system.

From recent quarterly reports released by the major chains, it would appear that Kroger, despite its size, is impacted by the deep discounters and major large competitor.  Kroger posted a 0.6 percent drop in comparable same store sales in 2023 compared to a four percent rise attained by Walmart.

On balance, a merger between Albertsons and Kroger would be to the disadvantage of both large and small suppliers and would disfavor competitors Walmart, Ahold-Delhaize and Target in addition to the three wholesale clubs.  If the merger is not concluded, both competitors of the two companies and suppliers would benefit.